
Here’s the thing: I hate the Academy Awards. They’re shady and unfair. So… why do I find myself investing my entire soul and being into the Oscars every year? Anyhoo, here’s a list of what I want to win vs. what probably will win tomorrow night.
Best Picture
Nominees: Call Me By Your Name; Darkest Hour; Dunkirk; Get Out; Lady Bird; Phantom Thread; The Post; The Shape Of Water; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What I want to win: Get Out
Putting aside its obvious artistry and wit, this film triggered a whole lot of important discourse. Plus… a Get Out win right after a Moonlight win? That would be amazing.
What will probably win: Get Out???
The Shape of Water would be the most predictable choice. But, this category has grown increasingly unpredictable, so I don’t really know… I honestly think Get Out has a pretty good shot this time, since more people seem to be willing to recognize its brilliance, especially after the success of Black Panther and after the faux-snub of Moonlight last year.
Actor in a Leading Role:
Nominees: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name; Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread; Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out; Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour; Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Who I Want to Win: Timotheé Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Chalamet is able to convey a plethora of emotions without even saying a word. The “Visions of Gideon” scene speaks for itself.
Who Will Probably Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
His uncanny transformation from handsome, middle-aged, British white guy into jowly, old, British white guy is just too juicy for the Academy to pass up.
Actress in a Leading Role:
Nominees: Sally Hawkins, The Shape Of Water; Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; Margot Robbie, I, Tonya; Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird; Meryl Streep, The Post
Who I Want to Win: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water or Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
While I was floored by Hawkins’ performance in The Shape of Water, I feel slightly uncomfy about her being awarded for playing a mute woman when, you know, an actual mute woman should have played the role. But maybe she’d point this out in her acceptance speech. Regardless, I don’t think she’s up for the win. I would, however, love to see Ronan get this one for her portrayal of a realistically complicated and multidimensional teenage girl and for the way she depicted her complex relationship with her mother (Laurie Metcalf).
Who Will Probably Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards or Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Frances McDormand’s hardened Mildred Hayes is practically made for the Oscars. But in tackling one social problem, Three Billboards fails to address another; while the film rightfully targets the issue of sexual abuse, it completely shoves aside its racially problematic components rather than make an actual point about them. I wonder if McDormand would mention this in her speech. But Robbie is definitely in the running here, too, for her transformation into a raspy, gives-no-shits portrayal of Tonya Harding.
Actor in a Supporting Role:
Nominees: Nominees: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project; Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; Richard Jenkins, The Shape Of Water; Christopher Plummer, All The Money In The World; Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who I Want to Win: Willem Defoe, The Florida Project, I guess
First, I just wish The Florida Project was nominated in other categories. It should be. Second, Defoe does a fantastic job playing the dedicated owner of a crushingly depressing hotel on the outskirts of Disneyland, but it sort of seems to me like the Academy has a major soft spot for weathered father figures. I think of Defoe’s character here, Harrelson’s character in Three Billboards, and last year’s winner, Mahershala Ali of Moonlight (who, don’t get me wrong, gave a phenomenally captivating performance); we just seem to love the beat-down anti-hero who somehow exudes benevolence despite an ethically murky background, but we rarely give that love to their complex female counterparts or mother figures. I must admit to being insanely bitter that The Florida Project‘s Bria Vinaite has not gotten the awards recognition she deserves.
Who Will Probably Win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
He does an increidble job. But this, too, would make me uncomfy.
Actress in a Supporting Role:
Nominees: Nominees: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound; Allison Janney, I, Tonya; Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread; Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird; Octavia Spencer, The Shape Of Water
Who I Want to Win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
She just nails it.
Who Will Probably Win: Allison Janney or Laurie Metcalf
Just like its proclivity for the aforementioned Defoe types, the awards love their eccentric, bad mothers. Now, I’m referring exclusively to Janney’s character, because Metcalf’s mother in Lady Bird is realistically complex and anything but cartoonish. I, Tonya‘s portrayal of LaVona Golden, on the other hand, feels like the sort of glorified caricature of motherhood that always makes me feel uneasy. (Think running eyeliner, smoking in the kitchen, any sort of accent, etc… basically Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle.) Janney undoubtedly makes the most of it, but I think I, Tonya falls into the trap of romanticizing a variety of difficult topics, particularly socioeconomic inequality, in a way that says, “Look, isn’t this abusive, poverty-stricken family crazy and fun?”
Cinematography:
Nominees: Roger A. Deakins, Blade Runner 2049; Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour; Hoyte van Hoytema, Dunkirk; Rachel Morrison, Mudbound; Dan Laustsen, The Shape Of Water
What I Want to Win: Hoyte van Hoytema, Dunkirk or Roger A. Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
This one’s tough. Dunkirk‘s camera work is so effective that it throws you into wartime and will likely even cause you to have a visceral reaction when watching the film. The use of sweeping, open spaces and tight, claustrophobic ones is ingeniously executed. Meanwhile, the Blade Runner reboot achieved the impossible by building on the aesthetic of its predecessor without simply copying it. It’s spectacular to look at.
What Will Probably Win: Roger A. Deakins, Blade Runner 2049 or Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water
I would be okay with The Shape of Water winning, because it, too, is beautiful and unique.
Directing
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread; Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape Of Water; Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird; Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk; Jordan Peele, Get Out
Who I Want to Win: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (but WHY ISN’T SEAN BAKER NOMINATED?)
This film nears perfection, and I think it is largely thanks to Gerwig’s direction. I feel like this could be a very easy story to adapt from page to screen badly, but Gerwig has the magic touch that allows Lady Bird to be what it is.
Who Will Probably Win: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
He would certainly deserve it, but Gerwig deserves it more.
Film Editing
Nominees: Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos, Baby Driver; Lee Smith, Dunkirk; Tatiana S. Riegel, I, Tonya; Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape Of Water; Jon Gregory, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who I Want to Win: Lee Smith, Dunkirk
Smith’s editing is integral to the film’s impact; the way he plays with time is just so smart. Think about the scene near the beginning of the film in which two characters sprint across the beach carrying a stretcher. This kind of thing is what puts you on the edge of your seat.
Who Will Probably Win: Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos, Baby Driver or Lee Smith, Dunkirk
I would actually support Baby Driver winning this. I would not support it ever winning anything else.
Music (Original Score)
Nominees: Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk; Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread; Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water; John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi; Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who I Want to Win: Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
While I have a deep, unconditional love for Zimmer, I must admit that his overbearing blasts of sound can sometimes go the gimmicky route. But his signature big sound actually makes perfect sense in the Dunkirk score; at times, I couldn’t even tell the music from the sound effects. Complete with the sound of Chris Nolan’s ticking watch, this score works to construct an almost unbearably stressful experience.
Who Will Probably Win: Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
As all Desplat scores are, this one is beautiful. I think its whimsical senimentality, along with the way it perfectly matches the film’s aeshetic and story, will give it a win.
Music (Original Song)
Nominees: “Mighty River,” Mudbound; “Mystery of Love,” Call Me By Your Name; “Remember Me,” Coco; “Stand Up For Something,” Marshall; “This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman
What I Want to Win: “Mystery of Love,” Music and Lyric by Sufjan Stevens, Call Me By Your Name
A tragic and magical song with fitting lyrics brimming with religious allusions.
What Will Probably Win: “Mystery of Love,” Call Me By Your Name or “Remember Me,” Coco
I hate myself just as much as you do, but… I haven’t gotten around to seeing Coco. But I hear this song is a potential winner.
Production Design
Nominees: Beauty and the Beast; Blade Runner 2049; Darkest Hour; Dunkirk; The Shape of Water
Who I Want to Win: Paul Denham Austerberry (Production Design) and Shane Vieau/Jeffrey A. Melvin (Set Decoration), The Shape of Water
The diegetic world is completely unique.
Who Will Probably Win: Paul Denham Austerberry (Production Design) and Shane Vieau/Jeffrey A. Melvin (Set Decoration), The Shape of Water
Or, I don’t know, maybe Dennis Gassner (Production Design) and Alessandra Querzola (Set Decoration), Blade Runner 2049.
Visual Effects
Nominees: Blade Runner 2049; Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2; Kong: Skull Island; Star Wars: The Last Jedi; War For The Planet Of The Apes
Who I Want to Win: John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert and Richard R. Hoover, Blade Runner 2049
Self-explanatory.
Who Will Probably Win: John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert and Richard R. Hoover, Blade Runner 2049
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Nominees: Molly’s Game, Mudbound, Call Me By Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Logan
Who I Want to Win: James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
I mean, come on.
Who Will Probably Win: James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
I mean… come on.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Nominees: The Big Sick; Get Out; Lady Bird; The Shape Of Water; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who I Want to Win: Jordan Peele, Get Out or Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Ahhh, I just don’t know. It depends on what wins Directing and Best Picture.
Who Will Probably Win: Jordan Peele, Get Out or Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

Don’t forget to watch the Oscars on Sunday at 8 ET!